Monthly report October 2025

Performance

Adrigo Small & Midcap L/S Class A and Class C declined by 6.5% in October, after fees. The Carnegie Small Cap Return Index Nordic rose by 2.6% during the month. The fund’s performance year-to-date, down 13.7%, remains clearly unsatisfactory. The negative return is primarily attributable to a very weak share price performance in three of the fund’s holdings.

Among the fund’s larger positions, Pierce Group (e-commerce) and Frontline (transport) made solid contributions. Among the fund’s smaller and mid-sized positions, we noted good contributions from Opter (software) and Ratos (investment company). The fund’s short positions, as a group, had a negative impact on performance.

Since inception, Adrigo Small & Midcap L/S Class A has returned 45.9% after fees. Over the same period, the benchmark interest rate STIBOR 1M has returned 9.3%, while the Carnegie Small Cap Return Index Nordic (not a benchmark) has returned 109.6%.

Market Overview

October was another strong month for global equity markets. The Japanese Nikkei index led the way with a gain of 16.7%. MSCI EM rose by 4.6%, while MSCI World increased by 3.6%. Euro Stoxx 50 was up 2.5% and the S&P 500 gained 2.3%. In addition to Japan, Korea stood out with an increase of 24.5%.

In the Nordic region, the Finnish market rose by 8.6%, followed by the Swedish market, which ended the month up 4.1%. The Danish and Norwegian markets fell by 0.5% and 2.0%, respectively. After a couple of weak months, Swedish small caps performed in line with large caps.

We continue to see a steady flow of new listings on the stock market and expect good activity in the coming month.

Companies and Performance Highlights

Hansa Biopharma experienced a sharp pullback in October, following strong share price performance since April when Renée Aguiar-Lucander assumed the role of CEO. The decline occurred without any negative news, likely due to some investors taking profits, and to the company issuing new shares at the start of the month, which diluted existing shareholders and put temporary pressure on the share price. 

Although European sales were weak in the quarter, the very strong data recently published from the Phase 3 Confldes study (in the U.S.) points to a significantly more positive outlook. In addition, results from the European Phase 3 study are expected in 2026. While Europe is important, the major commercial potential for the product is primarily in the United States.

We recently met with Renée Aguiar-Lucander, and the meeting further strengthened our positive view. We expect the company to submit a BLA (Biological License Application) to the FDA before year-end, and we consider the likelihood of an accelerated approval process to be high, potentially enabling a launch as early as the second half of 2026.

We entered 2025 with optimism regarding Swedish consumption, supported by tax cuts and lower interest rates. In recent quarters, we have also identified a strengthening demand trend in several companies. Both BHG Group and Nobia have shown accelerating momentum during the second and third quarters.

In real terms, Swedish private consumption increased by 3% in the third quarter, compared with 2% and 0% in the second and first quarters, respectively. September, in particular, was strong rising  4%. We hold several investments across the sector.

Nobia, the kitchen manufacturer, reported organic growth in the Nordics after eleven consecutive quarters of negative development. We expect substantial profit improvements over the coming years, driven by higher volumes and improved capacity utilisation in the newly built factory in Jönköping. We also do not rule out the possibility that the company may exit the UK market, which would likely benefit the share price. 

Also noteworthy are Pierce Group and Rugvista, two companies benefiting from the continued shift towards online retail and which have undergone significant internal changes in recent years. Both are trading at modest valuations.

Our return for the year has been clearly unsatisfactory and has been significantly affected by unexpected capital raises that have led to dilution and created concerns. We have previously written about Initiator Pharma, and during the autumn Braincool also announced a share issue, despite reporting strong sales for the third quarter.

Finally, as always, we wish to thank our co-investors for your continued trust. Please don’t hesitate to reach out with any comments or questions.